Workshop on Technology Forecasting For Science & Technology Intelligence
Forecasting the direction and rate of technological advance is a critical component in the competitive intelligence process supporting strategic technology planning, R&D management, and corporate governance. In this workshop you will learn to apply commonly used quantitative and qualitative techniques for:
1. Understanding the state of the art of technologies important to your business,
2. Predicting future directions and likely developments in those technologies, and
3. Assessing the competitive landscape and the technical capability of your competitors.
The workshop begins with a discussion of the role of technology forecasting in science & technology intelligence (S&TI) and strategic planning. Then, from a discussion of the underlying dynamics of technological advance, we progress to a review of the most valuable sources of technology intelligence data. A subsequent presentation of surveillance techniques will then give way to a discussion of simple spreadsheet techniques for analyzing and extrapolating technology trends based on the well known technology s-curve. In this portion of the workshop, you will learn how these techniques are applied to:
1. The analysis of technological performance trends, and
2. The substitution of a new technology or innovation for an existing one.
But, because the diffusion of technology is more than a simple curve fitting exercise, we will also examine how the attributes of an innovation impact its diffusion in the market place.
While the first part of the workshop emphasizes quantitative techniques, the second part focuses on structured, normative techniques for the development of technology intelligence. In this portion, you will gain experience in the use of the Delphi technique, nominal group technique, and morphological analysis for eliciting expert opinion. Also covered will be scenario methodologies and the application of the well known Analytic Hierarchy Process to technology analysis. And, since no forecasting or intelligence project is conducted in isolation, we will include a discussion of ethical and legal considerations in competitive technical intelligence. Finally, we will close with a review of the techniques studied, emphasizing their applicability to real world competitive intelligence analysis. Throughout the workshop, we will rely on exercises, simulations, and case studies to illustrate the techniques covered and provide participants with an opportunity to have “done it at least once.” Furthermore, participants are encouraged to bring trend data of their own to work with during the extrapolation exercise portions of the workshop.
This intensive, hands-on workshop is designed to cover 2 to 2.5 days depending on the needs of the host firm. For example, a two day workshop can be arranged with only an overview of scenario methodologies and other selected topics receiving greater or lesser emphasis as needed. A full treatment of all the topics, including the scenario methodology, adds an additional half day and is recommended for firms that are seriously considering using the technique. Alternatively, a one-day condensed course for managers, who will benefit from an awareness of the techniques but who will not personally apply them, can be constructed by eliminating most of the hands on exercises and abbreviating certain other topics.
1. Understanding the state of the art of technologies important to your business,
2. Predicting future directions and likely developments in those technologies, and
3. Assessing the competitive landscape and the technical capability of your competitors.
The workshop begins with a discussion of the role of technology forecasting in science & technology intelligence (S&TI) and strategic planning. Then, from a discussion of the underlying dynamics of technological advance, we progress to a review of the most valuable sources of technology intelligence data. A subsequent presentation of surveillance techniques will then give way to a discussion of simple spreadsheet techniques for analyzing and extrapolating technology trends based on the well known technology s-curve. In this portion of the workshop, you will learn how these techniques are applied to:
1. The analysis of technological performance trends, and
2. The substitution of a new technology or innovation for an existing one.
But, because the diffusion of technology is more than a simple curve fitting exercise, we will also examine how the attributes of an innovation impact its diffusion in the market place.
While the first part of the workshop emphasizes quantitative techniques, the second part focuses on structured, normative techniques for the development of technology intelligence. In this portion, you will gain experience in the use of the Delphi technique, nominal group technique, and morphological analysis for eliciting expert opinion. Also covered will be scenario methodologies and the application of the well known Analytic Hierarchy Process to technology analysis. And, since no forecasting or intelligence project is conducted in isolation, we will include a discussion of ethical and legal considerations in competitive technical intelligence. Finally, we will close with a review of the techniques studied, emphasizing their applicability to real world competitive intelligence analysis. Throughout the workshop, we will rely on exercises, simulations, and case studies to illustrate the techniques covered and provide participants with an opportunity to have “done it at least once.” Furthermore, participants are encouraged to bring trend data of their own to work with during the extrapolation exercise portions of the workshop.
This intensive, hands-on workshop is designed to cover 2 to 2.5 days depending on the needs of the host firm. For example, a two day workshop can be arranged with only an overview of scenario methodologies and other selected topics receiving greater or lesser emphasis as needed. A full treatment of all the topics, including the scenario methodology, adds an additional half day and is recommended for firms that are seriously considering using the technique. Alternatively, a one-day condensed course for managers, who will benefit from an awareness of the techniques but who will not personally apply them, can be constructed by eliminating most of the hands on exercises and abbreviating certain other topics.
Course Outline
Part I
Introduction
Technology Forecasting in S&I - Who? What? Why?
- Technology and competitive advantage
- Role of technology forecasting in competitive intelligence and strategy formulation
- Taxonomy of technology forecasting methods
- Dynamics of technological advance and the technology S-curve
Technology Surveillance
- Scanning
- Monitoring
- Tracking
S&TI Data Collection
- Primary
- Secondary
- Electronic
Technology Trend Analysis
- Types of trends; Review of linear regression and correlation
- Precursor trends; Forecasting by analogy
- What to forecast? Selecting forecasting measures
- Growth curves (Pearl, Gompertz)
- Graphical trend extrapolation exercise
- Trend extrapolation using simple spreadsheet techniques (optional topic)
Substitution Models
- Review of conventional capital replacement
- Fisher-Pry substitution
- Substitution exercise
- Rate of change models
- Impact of innovation attributes on innovation diffusion
Part II
Learning/Experience Curves (optional topic)
- Types of learning curves
- Learning curve exercise
Eliciting Expert Opinion I
- Structured interviews
- Nominal group technique
- Impact wheels
Eliciting Expert Opinion II
- Delphi technique
- Delphi simulation
Decomposition Techniques
- Morphological analysis
- Relevance trees
- Analytic hierarchy process
Scenario Methodologies
Ethics and Legalities
- Reverse engineering
- Using human sources
- What else is legal? What’s not?
Concluding Remarks
- What else is there?
- Managing the forecasting project
- Common forecasting errors
Introduction
Technology Forecasting in S&I - Who? What? Why?
- Technology and competitive advantage
- Role of technology forecasting in competitive intelligence and strategy formulation
- Taxonomy of technology forecasting methods
- Dynamics of technological advance and the technology S-curve
Technology Surveillance
- Scanning
- Monitoring
- Tracking
S&TI Data Collection
- Primary
- Secondary
- Electronic
Technology Trend Analysis
- Types of trends; Review of linear regression and correlation
- Precursor trends; Forecasting by analogy
- What to forecast? Selecting forecasting measures
- Growth curves (Pearl, Gompertz)
- Graphical trend extrapolation exercise
- Trend extrapolation using simple spreadsheet techniques (optional topic)
Substitution Models
- Review of conventional capital replacement
- Fisher-Pry substitution
- Substitution exercise
- Rate of change models
- Impact of innovation attributes on innovation diffusion
Part II
Learning/Experience Curves (optional topic)
- Types of learning curves
- Learning curve exercise
Eliciting Expert Opinion I
- Structured interviews
- Nominal group technique
- Impact wheels
Eliciting Expert Opinion II
- Delphi technique
- Delphi simulation
Decomposition Techniques
- Morphological analysis
- Relevance trees
- Analytic hierarchy process
Scenario Methodologies
Ethics and Legalities
- Reverse engineering
- Using human sources
- What else is legal? What’s not?
Concluding Remarks
- What else is there?
- Managing the forecasting project
- Common forecasting errors